What to make of Ancestry.com

In Depth Analysis for Ancestry.com

When I think of 2011, I think of ancestry.com as being on of those wild rides that if you weren't in it you wish you were. 

Ancestry.com Stock Ticker

The Business:

Ancestry.com, Inc. (Ancestry.com) is an online family history resource. As of December 31, 2011, the Company had over 1.4 million paying subscribers worldwide. The foundation of its service is a collection of billions of historical records that the Company has digitized, indexed and put online over the past 14 years. It has developed and acquired systems for digitizing handwritten historical documents, and has relationships with national, state and local government archives, historical societies, religious institutions and private collectors of historical content worldwide. The Company’s subscribers use its online platform and digital historical record collection to research their family histories, build their family trees, collaborate with other subscribers, upload their own records and publish and share their stories.

Pros:
Subscription based companies such as Ancestry.com or even Netflix have been on fire, with growing subscribers and a growing interest for the companies resources and the stocks. Subscriptions are an excellent source of income and the cost to get the subscription becomes cheaper the longer the subscriber.

Cons:

Data posted from Bloomberg and Nasdaq stated the short interest on Ancestry.com rose 17% as of August 31. This resulted in a 10% pullback in the stock bringing it well below the 50-day moving average and well below the 200-day moving average.

This is the year to date chart with the MACD displaying on the lower of the chart. which is a technical buy/sell indicator. 

Although earnings are increasing as of the 2nd Qtr results when the stock was trading at over $40 per share. The report showed slowing growth of subscriptions and it has been down since.

What to make of Ancestry.com

Even though the stock is down for $40 since the end of July, I still feel the shares are a little to expensive for my taste. If you are worried the shares will increase dramatically and you would have missed the boat if you do like the company buy some out-of-the-money call options. I have this on my radar for a buy at $26, we will see how the trade plays out.

If you have any suggestions on stock picks you would like to see analysed, post a comment with your pick.

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These are brief explanations if you have any questions or would like additional information please contact me directly through the blog. Leave your email and I will try to respond quickly. These are just opinions of mine and you should not use a specific opinion to make an investment. Investors should be aware of the risk involved in making investments.

Can default rescue the euro and stock prices?

Its been sometime since I've come to post, so here it is:

If you haven't picked up a newspaper in about 2 years than you wouldn't know that Europe has dominated the headlines. Countries like Greece, Portugal and Ireland all taking ECB bailouts and speculation of a Greek default growing.

What does this mean for you?

If you are not directly invested in Europe you have probably still felt the contagion, and if you are than you have most likely seen losses on your investments. An organized default may save the euro and boost your stock prices as well.

Lets look at Russia's default in 1998 and Argentina in 2002, both countries after default saw essential company stock prices rise +1,000% as stocks have been brutally hammered and value investors saw the value of the companies in the economy.

Default priced in?

The Athens exchange has lost one third of its value in the last several weeks and other exchanges have seen losses all across the board.

A stock like The National Bank of Greece (NBG) which is trading at pennies on the dollar when looking at current assets and lucrative businesses abroad have priced in a default. If default occurs this is a stock to look at as being a value investment.                                Current market price: $0.78

How can you make money?

Essential companies in these damaged European economies is a great way to pick up some bargain stocks. Companies that the economy simply will no function properly without, banks, telecommunication, utility companies etc. Values of these companies have been wiped away by speculation and fear and reality is these companies are needed to progress further. Imagine waking up without utility companies, banks, cellphones?

"Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffet

Comment and Subscribe/Follow the blog.

These are brief explanations if you have any questions or would like additional information please contact me directly through the blog. Leave your email and I will try to respond quickly. These are just opinions of mine and you should not use a specific opinion to make an investment. Investors should be aware of the risk involved in making investments.

2011 a new year a new stock market (All about finding value)

Potential Top gainers for 2011:

Overall it appears that the overall market will rise 12% in 2011, However this is a stock picker market and you cannot just pick any stock in a sector and hope they all move together. I Have found the companies which shares I find value in when doing some fundamental analysis.

Bank of America Corporation (Public, NYSE:BAC)

Bank of America Corporation is a bank holding company, and a financial holding company. The Company is a financial institution, serving individual consumers, small and middle market businesses, large corporations and governments with a range of banking, investing, asset management and other financial and risk management products and services. Through its banking subsidiaries (the Banks) and various nonbanking subsidiaries throughout the United States and in selected international markets, it provides a range of banking and nonbanking financial services and products through six business segments: Deposits, Global Card Services, Home Loans & Insurance, Global Commercial Banking, Global Banking & Markets, Global Wealth & Investment Management, with the remaining operations recorded in All Other.

Current price: $13.32

Mr.Stock Picks price target for year end 2011: $21

Netflix, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NFLX)

Netflix, Inc. is a subscription service streaming movies and television episodes over the Internet and sending digital versatile discs (DVDs) by mail to more than 12 million subscribers. The Company’s subscribers can watch unlimited movies and television episodes streamed to their televisions and computers, and can receive DVDs delivered to their homes. The Company offers a variety of subscription plans, with no due dates, no late fees, no shipping fees and no pay-per-view fees. Subscribers can select from a library of titles that can be watched and a range of titles on DVD. On average, approximately two million discs are shipped daily from the Company’s distribution centers across the United States. In September 2010, the Company launched Canadian service for streaming movies and television episodes over Internet.

Current price: $181.71

Mr. Stock Picks price target for year end 2011: $260 (potential stock split)

Trina Solar Limited (ADR) (Public, NYSE:TSL)

Trina Solar Limited (Trina) is an integrated solar-power products manufacturer based in China with a global distribution network covering Europe, North America and Asia. It produces standard monocrystalline photovoltaic (PV) modules ranging from 165 watts (W), to 240 W in power output and multicrystalline PV modules ranging from 215 W to 240 W in power output. Trina sells and markets its products worldwide, including in a number of European countries, such as Germany, Spain and Italy. It sells the products to distributors, wholesalers, power plant developers and operators and PV system integrators, including Bull Solar, Enfinity NV, Gestamp Asetym Solar S.L., Invictus NV and Proysectos Integrales Solares S.L. As of December 31, 2009, Trina had an annual manufacturing capacity of ingots and wafers of approximately 500 MW and cells and modules of approximately 600 MW.

Current price: $22.98

Mr.Stock Picks price target for year end 2011: $ 29

National Bank of Greece (ADR) (Public, NYSE:NBG)

National Bank of Greece S.A. (the Bank) is a Greece-based financial institution. It offers a range of integrated financial services, including corporate and investment banking, retail banking (including mortgage lending), leasing, stock brokerage, asset management and venture capital, insurance, real estate and consulting services. In addition, the Company is involved in various other businesses, including hotel and property management, real estate and information technology (IT) consulting. On June 30, 2009, NBG Luxemburg Holding S.A. and NBG Luxfinance Holding S.A. were merged to NBG Asset Management Luxemburg S.A. On January 18, 2010, the Bank acquired 35% of the share capital of AKTOR FM. On October 16, 2009, United Bulgarian Bank A.D. (UBB) established UBB Factoring E.O.O.D., a wholly owned subsidiary of UBB. On September 15, 2009, the Bank disposed of its investment in Phosphoric Fertilizers Industry S.A.

Current price: $1.69

Mr. Stock Picks price target for year end 2011: $2.75

Banco Santander, S.A. (ADR) (Public, NYSE:STD)

Banco Santander, S.A. (Santander)is a financial group operating principally in Spain, the United Kingdom, Portugal, other European countries, Brazil and other Latin American countries and the United States, offering a range of financial products. It operates in four segments: Continental Europe, United Kingdom, Latin America and Sovereign. Continental Europe segment covers all retail banking business (including Banco Banif, S.A. (Banif), its specialized private bank), wholesale banking and asset management and insurance conducted in Europe, with the exception of the United Kingdom. United Kingdom segment includes retail and wholesale banking, asset management and insurance conducted by the various units and branches of the Company in the United Kingdom. Latin America segment includes the specialized units in Santander Private Banking, as an independent globally managed unit. Santander’s business in New York is also managed in this area.

Current Price: $10.56

Mr.Stock Picks price target for year end 2011: $16

Vodafone Group Plc (ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:VOD)

Vodafone Group Plc (Vodafone) is a mobile communications company operating across the globe providing a range of communications services. It offers a range of products and services, including voice, messaging, data and fixed-line solutions and devices to assist customers in meeting their total communications needs. Vodafone has a significant global presence, with equity interests in over 30 countries and over 40 partner markets worldwide. It operates in three geographic regions: Europe, Africa and Central Europe; Asia Pacific, and the Middle East, and has an investment in Verizon Wireless in the United States. On April 20, 2009, it acquired an additional 15% stake in Vodacom Group Limited (Vodacom). On May 18, 2009, Vodacom became a subsidiary following the termination of the shareholder agreement with Telkom SA Limited, the seller and previous joint venture partner. On June 9, 2009, Vodafone Australia completed its merger with Hutchison 3G Australia to form a 50:50 joint venture.

Current Price: $26.29

Mr.Stock Picks price for year end 2011: $32

Speculative Pick for 2011:

China Recycling Energy Corp. (Public, NASDAQ:CREG)

China Recycling Energy Corporation is engaged in the recycling energy business, providing energy savings and recycling products and services. Its business is primarily conducted through the wholly-owned subsidiary, Sifang Holdings and its wholly-owned subsidiaries, Shanghai TCH and Shanghai TCH’s wholly-subsidiaries, Xi’an TCH Energy Technology Company, Ltd, Xingtai Huaxin Energy Tech Co., Ltd., Xi’an TCH’s 80% owned subsidiary Erdos TCH, and Sifang Holding’s subsidiary, Huahong New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. On April 14, 2009, the Company incorporated a joint venture with Erdos Metallurgy Co., Ltd. to recycle waste heat from Erdos's metal refining plants to generate power and steam.

Careful with a speculative stock it has the potential to rise sharply or drop like a rock. However this is a relatively small company only $115M market cap which is currently profitable and has a great business model. The balance sheet is one of the best I have seen for such a small company.

Current price: $2.99

Mr.Stock Picks target price for year end 2011: either $2 or $8 depending on how the scenario can play out.

Have a good New Year,

Mr.Stock Pick

Comment and Subscribe/Follow the blog.

These are brief explanations if you have any questions or would like additional information please contact me directly through the blog. Leave your email and I will try to respond quickly. These are just opinions of mine and you should not use a specific opinion to make an investment. Investors should be aware of the risk involved in making investments.

Google (GOOG) WOW’s investors with Q3 earnings!

Google sees a surge in after-hours pricing after Q3 earnings beat Wall Street estimates. Earning $7.64 a share a 32% increase.

The digital world is still growing substantially. Google has seen revenue growth in all of its sectors this quarter. (Search, display, advertising, mobile)

Can Google act like its normal self?
This year has just been frustrating for investors holding GOOG. News about China and rising expenses has left investors unsure about the future of the company.

Google Instant:
From a revenue standpoint there is little change, from a user standpoint Google Instant is great innovation. Users find themselves making more searches faster and the positive results are great.

Display brings over $2.5 Billion; this does not include text ads. Google believes strongly this is the movement of the future as it is already here and growing.

Mobile brought in $1 Billion to Google. People coming online on mobile are using Google for searches and more queries are coming in from android devices.

Google’s headcount increases 11%

What else is new?
Google hired bond traders to invest cash
Google invested $5 BLN into a wind turbine project
Google is testing robotic cars with the ability to steer itself

What does this mean?

When choosing whether Google is the right investment you need to also use “ninja skills” to guesetimate if Google will find the next big market and continue to grow its core search business. 

Mr.Stock Picks take on the stock:

I feel these numbers are huge! It blew all the estimates out of the water as Google usually does. Google is a great play for the Internet and Mobile Tsunami. They are diversifying in many different sectors and growing their current businesses. I don't think that we will see the aggressive growth GOOG has shown in the past but I still believe in the online growth story.

GOOG Price Target - $630 

Comment and Subscribe/Follow the blog.

These are brief explanations if you have any questions or would like additional information please contact me directly through the blog. Leave your email and I will try to respond quickly. These are just opinions of mine and you should not use a specific opinion to make an investment. Investors should be aware of the risk involved in making investments.

A winner from the BP oil spill

Aggressive Growth Stock – First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR)

I mentioned in the last post that I expect the Oil services industry to get hammered due to the BP oil spill. This leaves me to seek opportunities in the renewable energy services sector. Solar, Wind and even Natural Gas (with the endorsement by Obama) may be the power giants of the future.

Future of Oil projections:

-Oil extracting will be very costly, as companies must follow regulation and may be hit with new taxes.
-This will be passed down to consumers making oil costly for the end user.
-The current state of the economy cannot handle another large increase in oil prices.

This leads me to the conclusion that alternative energy has to grow, aggressively. Hybrid batteries are not excluded - Azure Dynamics Corporation (Public, TSE:AZD) is a speculative stock I keep a close eye on. I will do a in depth analysis of this company on a later day.

Price as of this posting: 

 

About FirstSolar:

First Solar originally operated as a Delaware limited liability company from 1999 until 2006. First Solar, Inc. was then incorporated in Delaware on February 22, 2006. First Solar's initial public offering was on November 17, 2006. First Solar's initial public offering was on November 17, 2006. FSLR has the leading technology for Solar Panels today. Clean, Affordable and Sustainable are three words that describe the companies goals to the end consumer. First Solar deals with Utility, Commercial and Residential as for other solar companies I have found to do one or two out of the three. First Solar also is the only Solar company that deal with recycling its own products, Now thats going green!  FSLR is currently holding $714.17 Million as of last quarter and holds $162.48 of debt. It is currently trading at a low P/E of 15.46.

 

 Mr.Stock Picks Price Target for FSLR: $180

Year over year earnings starting from right to left (2006 - 2009)

Diluted Normalized EPS:                      7.78               4.25             2.03                .06

The growth rate has been great, it may slow but I still see aggressive global growth.

Mr. Stock Picks Conclusion:

Seeing how FSLR’s exposure being significant in Europe in order to buy this stock you must believe in the recovery in Europe. I feel this recovery will surprise everyone and the Euro will once again be strong. The global growth along with problems in the oil service sector are just added reasons for the future of this company. Not to mention the company's financial health is well.

Some of FSLR's Solar Panels:

This stock is put on my buy list, and I am keeping a very close eye on it.

Mr. StockPick

Comment and Subscribe/Follow the blog.

These are brief explanations if you have any questions or would like additional information please contact me directly through the blog. Leave your email and I will try to respond quickly. These are just opinions of mine and you should not use a specific opinion to make an investment. Investors should be aware of the risk involved in making investments.

Is it time to sell BP?

BP (BP:NYSE) which is known to stand for British Petroleum, may now have the nickname Broken Pipe due to the recent pipe explosion in the gulf of Mexico causing the biggest environmental disaster of all time.

BP failed to insert a trigger switch at the source of the oil pipe which would have in-fact stopped the oil from leaking immediately. This trigger switch was taken out of the regulation while Bush was in office and is a necessary requirement for drilling in most parts in the world. While BP was making record profits they decided they did not want to spend the $500,000 it costs to place the trigger switch at the source which will now cost them a number which some analysts say is unforeseeable.

To sell or not to sell? That is the question.

May 27 - BP (BP:NYSE) was upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer, which said the stock's risk/reward appears more attractive at current levels. $55 price target.

BP is expecting lawsuits from some of the largest fish farmers in the world. BP has also filed a claim with a US court trying to get damages against Transocean, (NYSE:RIG) the company in charge of drilling the oil well.

BP's "top kill" attempt to stop the flow of oil from a ruptured well in the Gulf of Mexico failed. Presidential adviser Carol Browner yesterday dampened expectations that renewed efforts to plug the leak would work, saying oil could leak until August when two relief wells are due to be completed.

The bill for BP, to compensate those who have experienced losses during the spill and for the cost of the cleanup is projected to be approximately $12 BLN says USB.

What does a $12 BLN hit mean for BP?
At the end of Q1 2010 BP has approximately $6.8 BLN in cash and $5.4 BLN in short-term investments bringing free cash flow of around $12.2 BLN. The total assets including long term investments for BP is at approximately $240 BLN which outweighs the liabilities by nearly $100BLN.

If the bill were to be $12BLN it can easily be sustained by BP, while taking a short-term fundamental hit the company can once again thrive in the long-term.

Mr. Stock Picks thoughts on the situation:

This spill is a growing disaster for BP. While the share price has fallen tremendously giving it an attractive 8% yield I feel like I need to stay away from it for now. The Obama administration has a lot of power and I can see a new oil drilling tax coming in place in the near future. Solar and Wind energy anyone? I will do some analysis on some green energy companies as I can see them benefiting most from this environmental crisis.

Video of oil leaking:

Question for you readers to comment on below:

Will BP go Bankrupt?
How big of a liability will this oil spill be?
Are you a buyer or a seller?

Mr. Stock Pick

National Bank of Greece Bets on Turkey to boost growth

How can you ignore NBG - National Bank of Greece.

These are Bargin bin prices!

Current share price $2.50

Heres a video for you guys:



Mr. Stock Pick