Is it time to sell BP?

BP (BP:NYSE) which is known to stand for British Petroleum, may now have the nickname Broken Pipe due to the recent pipe explosion in the gulf of Mexico causing the biggest environmental disaster of all time.

BP failed to insert a trigger switch at the source of the oil pipe which would have in-fact stopped the oil from leaking immediately. This trigger switch was taken out of the regulation while Bush was in office and is a necessary requirement for drilling in most parts in the world. While BP was making record profits they decided they did not want to spend the $500,000 it costs to place the trigger switch at the source which will now cost them a number which some analysts say is unforeseeable.

To sell or not to sell? That is the question.

May 27 - BP (BP:NYSE) was upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer, which said the stock's risk/reward appears more attractive at current levels. $55 price target.

BP is expecting lawsuits from some of the largest fish farmers in the world. BP has also filed a claim with a US court trying to get damages against Transocean, (NYSE:RIG) the company in charge of drilling the oil well.

BP's "top kill" attempt to stop the flow of oil from a ruptured well in the Gulf of Mexico failed. Presidential adviser Carol Browner yesterday dampened expectations that renewed efforts to plug the leak would work, saying oil could leak until August when two relief wells are due to be completed.

The bill for BP, to compensate those who have experienced losses during the spill and for the cost of the cleanup is projected to be approximately $12 BLN says USB.

What does a $12 BLN hit mean for BP?
At the end of Q1 2010 BP has approximately $6.8 BLN in cash and $5.4 BLN in short-term investments bringing free cash flow of around $12.2 BLN. The total assets including long term investments for BP is at approximately $240 BLN which outweighs the liabilities by nearly $100BLN.

If the bill were to be $12BLN it can easily be sustained by BP, while taking a short-term fundamental hit the company can once again thrive in the long-term.

Mr. Stock Picks thoughts on the situation:

This spill is a growing disaster for BP. While the share price has fallen tremendously giving it an attractive 8% yield I feel like I need to stay away from it for now. The Obama administration has a lot of power and I can see a new oil drilling tax coming in place in the near future. Solar and Wind energy anyone? I will do some analysis on some green energy companies as I can see them benefiting most from this environmental crisis.

Video of oil leaking:

Question for you readers to comment on below:

Will BP go Bankrupt?
How big of a liability will this oil spill be?
Are you a buyer or a seller?

Mr. Stock Pick

National Bank of Greece Bets on Turkey to boost growth

How can you ignore NBG - National Bank of Greece.

These are Bargin bin prices!

Current share price $2.50

Heres a video for you guys:



Mr. Stock Pick

This bank stock can double! - 10/05/2010

Bulls,

The Greek Gods have been on vacation and they have not done their banking.

Greek God Zeus has his mortgage with the National Bank of Greece – NBG

About The National Bank of Greece:

Founded in 1841 as a commercial bank NBG is the oldest and largest among the Greek banks.  It has been listed on the Athens Stock Exchange since the latter's foundation in 1880. Since October 1999, the Bank has been listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

The NBG Group provides a full range of financial products and services that meet the constantly changing needs of corporate customers and private individuals, including investment banking services, brokerage, insurance, asset management, leasing and factoring.

One of the Bank's main strengths is the confidence shown in it by its customers, who hold over 9 million deposit accounts and more than 1.5 million lending accounts with NBG.

Horizontal Analysis:

	2008          2009
Total assets	113,394	101,323
Shareholders' equity	8,453	5,972
Loans and advances to customers (net)	69,134	64,498
Due to customers	71,194	67,657
Total operating income	5,077	4,926
Operating expenses	2,483	2,366
Provisions for loan losses	1,057	520
Net attributable profit	923	1,546
Net interest margin (NIM)	4.09%	4.25%
Return on equity (RoE)	13%	25%
Cost / Income	49%	48%

Finansbank – NBG’s stake in Turkey

“Greece’s biggest bank is relying on Turkey to pull it through an economic crisis at home.”

National Bank has spent over than $5 billion since 2006 to acquire Finansbank.

National Bank of Greece SA plans to open 75 branches from Ankara to Izmir this year to benefit from Turkish economic growth that is forecast to reach 5.2 percent. National Bank earned more last year at its Istanbul-based Finansbank ASunit than it did in Greece.

Its not just in Greece, NBG is diversified:

NBG - earned 425 million Euros in Turkey last year, Good investment? I think so.

Turkey’s banking industry is “much better regulated and supervised, and we’re highly capitalized” relative to Greek lenders

Now that the EU put together nearly a TRILLION $ aid package for Europe I think the National Bank of Greece will soar to the upside.

Mr .Stock Picks short term price target for National Bank of Greece (NBG) - $4.11

This stock should be kept on a radar, as this morning it is currently up: $0.36 to $3.03 per share.

Until the next one,

Mr. Stock Pick

Market Commentary – 07/05/10

Let me describe part of my day yesterday,


So I was browsing on the computer as my phone is going off. Text messages and Blackberry Messenger pings going off. 
Text messages read:

1) Dow down 900 points

2) Armageddon 

3) Blood on the streets - Buy Buy Buy

I try and visit Bloomberg but its appears that the site was crashing. I than go to Google finance and WOW.
It felt like the world was falling, I saw the DOW -934 Points and it was jumping within seconds. It appears as though it tanked and was free falling and all of a sudden its stopped on a dime and reversed. The volume was rapidly growing as this was happening. 

Big Moves at 2:45:

Accenture Plc 

(Public, NYSE:ACN) Went from $40 down to $0.01 than back up to $40

Google Inc. 

(Public, NASDAQ:GOOG) Went from $500 down to $460 than back up to $500

The Procter & Gamble Company 

(Public, NYSE:PG) Went from $60 down to $39 than back up to $59

Apple Inc. 

(Public, NASDAQ:AAPL) Went from $245 down to $200 than back up to $240


What happened here?


"Fat Finger" Trade? 


This is currently being investigated but rumor has it that a manager at Citigroup meant to sell $15 million dollars worth of PG but instead sold $15 Billion dollars. This has not confirmed true and there is no evidence at this time but it may not be an impossible human error. 
Keyboard: zxcvBnM not too far? What do you think?


Computer Glitch? 



Cancelled Trades:


NASDAQ cancelled nearly 300 trades that happened during this wild period. Some speculated that the bizarre trades were caused by technical glitches in the computers that caused trading to slow down causing stock prices to make big moves.


It would be nice if this happened on an up day!

Today's Headlines:

Euro recovers from 14-month lows

Payrolls increase but unemployment rises 

Germany approves of Greece's bailout

Oil Hovers at $75

One hot stock to watch over the weekend and next week:

National Bank of Greece (ADR) 

(Public, NYSE:NBG) Currently trading at 2.63 is near its 52-week low.


I will not be surprised if at some point next week this stock is up close to 20% on recovery hopes.


This is a speculative stock and investors should know the risk involved in investing.


Other stocks to watch with potential upside for next week:

Bank of America Corporation 

(Public, NYSE:BAC)

Google Inc. 

(Public, NASDAQ:GOOG)

Kraft Foods Inc. 

(Public, NYSE:KFT)

The Coca-Cola Company 

(Public, NYSE:KO)

Las Vegas Sands Corp. 

(Public, NYSE:LVS)

Apple Inc. 

(Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)

General Electric Company 

(Public, NYSE:GE) 




Have a good weekend,


Mr. Stock Pick


These are brief explanations if you have any questions or would like additional information please contact me directly through the blog. Leave your email and I will try to respond quickly. These are just opinions of mine and you should not use a specific opinion to make an investment. Investors should be aware of the risk involved in making investments.